It's The End Of The Web As We Know It And I Feel Fine

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I'm at the RVC SoftEdge Conference, where I'll be speaking tomorrow. RVC is the former venture arm of Reuters and this is its technology conference. The discussion here is wide ranging but generally around the evolution of information technology.

During one of the breaks I was speaking with a senior scientist who is intimately familiar with the plumbing of the web and is currently in command of a key piece of that infrastructure. On assurance of anonymity, he described for me what he views as a nail in the coffin of email communications as we know it. According to this scientist, SoBig and other spam bots, which he argues were designed to overwhelm spam filtering software, have so confounded AOL's email infrastructure that it has left the future of email in jeopardy. The volume of spam being sent by these autonomous spambots around the web is so great that, according to the scientist, AOL's email infrastructure has been brought to its knees this past Saturday, Monday and again today. As my source told me, AOL was ultimately forced for the first time to call upon others at the key choke-points around the web for assistance in solving this problem -- a problem which led the head of AOL's infrastructure group to state "the walls are falling in around us."

Just how bad is it? According to my source "it is the end of the Web as we know it." Despite massive efforts to trace SoBig and its progeny back to their source and to unravel the code necessary to turn these spam machines off, neither AOL nor other interested parties around the web have had any success and may never. If that is the case, the sheer volume of spam as a percentage of overall Internet traffic will make untrusted email communications completely unviable as a form of communication. Spam filters will necessarily be overwhelmed but email traffic without those filters will be impossibly unmanageable and therefore useless.

I have no way of knowing how much of what I am being told is true (although I will say that my source is certainly in a position to know) but it is certainly tragic if it is correct. As someone who relies so heavily upon email as the ultimate form of communication (first and foremost, because it is asynchronous, so I can engage in it late in the evening when my kids have gone to bed), the idea that email will no longer be tenable as a productive communications medium is horrifying. It will also have a serious impact upon the world of Venture Capital. Innumerable businesses upon which we are pitched each day and hundreds of which we have all funded are premised upon the viability of email as a communication tool (be it for knowledge management, collaboration, etc.). While a new frontier of trusted web communications will undoubtedly create numerous opportunities for technology funding, it will also leave a whole world of technology orphaned. Like any fundamental shift in technology infrastructure, this could leave a path of corporate roadkill in its wake.

NB: As a side note, I was visiting George Mueller of ColorKinetics just a couple months ago. In the course of our meeting, our conversation turned to the power of email. George passed on the theory of Ihor Lys, ColorKinetic's CTO, that smart distributed spambots would ultimately proliferate and make email communication impossible. I may have to give Ihor a ring and find out what else he's predicting.

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» The End of the Web as We Know It from Many-to-Many

David Hornik from the RVC Softedge conference sees the death of email as a sea change, the end of the web as we know it: …According to this scientist, SoBig and other spam bots, which he argues were designed to... Read More

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It suddenly seems fashionable to predict the death of email. Ray Ozzie thinks that it's about to be replaced by workspaces for important tasks. Joi thinks it's broken. Hornik believes that it's the end of the web as he knows Read More

» spoiling it for everyone from anti-mega

As I sat down to write this, I found a post by Clay, probably expressing these themes far better than me. Like him, I've got a gut feel of despondency - and for me it's not just about email. I found a love for newsgroups and mailing lists pretty much... Read More

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From the comments in VentureBlog:

What if some great minds could get together and create a new email infrastructure and throw out the POP3/SMTP protocols? Perhaps it wou
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» It's The End Of The Web As We Know It And I Feel Fine from Internet Changes Everything

VentureBlog: It's The End Of The Web As We Know It And I Feel Fine By David Hornik on September 30, 2003 10:35 PM | Links In | Print | Comments (13) | TrackBack (11) | Categories: Conferences and Consumer... Read More

13 Comments

brucer said:

"Despite massive efforts to trace SoBig and its progeny back to their source and to unravel the code necessary to turn these spam machines off, neither AOL nor other interested parties around the web have had any success and may never."

Smells like bullshit to me.

cash said:

When did we start refering to email as "the web"?

Samir said:

I say this piece is downright silly. My mailbox was bombarded with spam - like a hundred an hour at times or something - last week. I wrote an Outlook filter and now my mailbox is clean as ever.

Sure, AOL's problems are (mine * 30,000,000) but that does not make it close to catastrophic. AOL needs to upgrade its infrastructure a bit every time it sends out the next n-millionth CD in mail.

Stephen said:

This isn't about the mail in your mailbox. This is about the network traffic that mail (plus everyone else's) creates. So, Samie, you filtered the spam at the very last leg of its journey. That trip used up resources along the way. With the overwhelming traffic caused by SoBig and spambots, the entire infrastructure is under load (think of a very crowded expressway).

John said:

Note - I'm not a network engineer. Interpret this and apply a "what is doable" filter in your mind... there must be a solution...

What if some great minds could get together and create a new email infrastructure and throw out the POP3/SMTP protocols? Perhaps it would require an enhancement to TCP/IP as well (remember, I'm not an engineer). In any event, all email accounts would be trashed and reconstituted using an old-fashioned authentication scheme from a trusted source (e.g. a bank using your photo ID/passport and/or credit card...). A secure (encrypted, authenticated, and non-repudiable based on digital certs, etc.) system based on a trusted sender protocol could make it impossible for a randomly generated domain name/email/ip spam server to clog anybody's in box. It works for digital certs on ecommerce sites.. Maybe this is a new application for certs - signed email accounts.

Companies and individuals who own their domain names would be able to assign email accounts based on a single trusted umbrella account (and take the liability for misuse/spamming).

There would be some chaos during transition (dual mode for 1-2 years then everybody leaves the POP3/SMTP world in the past). There might be some cost (which would be a lot less than the current cost of having to dedicate billions of dollars to fight spam - so the ISPs, etc. could foot the bill). There's undoubtably a lot of great revenue opportunities as well for the entrepreneurs out there.

Bottom line - the current situation is starting to cut into the value of email to communicate (so many spam filters are killing my legitimate emails)...

Anyway, expiring, non-reputable, signed digital cert-based email is technically feasible.

More and more people are going to a simple email model of one time addresses. The key is that you would sign up on a web site (of the person who you wish to send email to) and be granted an email address for a short period of time (hours to days) that would have permission to get email to the person. The server mail application would be aware of the current list of temporary granted email addresses and only receive email from this list. Nothing changes on the client email platform since the server grabs all and sends them to the appropriate real account (which cannot get email directly).

Josh said:

This may come to be the end of email as we know it, but certainly not the end of email.

A trusted-email only system seems like a perfectly good response. Setting up software to create trusted circles, by specific email address or by domain, shouldn't be that tough. The burden on infrastructure would certainly not be as great if it were only delivering invitations and acceptances/denials and not 200K junk emails.

My response to junk mail is to check the From address and delete the email if it's someone (or something) I don't know. It doesn't really bother me, personally, but I'd be fine with my email system doing it for me. (I can't think of a single legitimate email I ever got from someone I didn't remember.)

Admittedly, I have a small circle of acquaintances/friends. You VC's may not want to lose unsolicited pitches. Then again, maybe you would.

Anyway, I say bring on trusted email.

However, when I hear about the same thing being done to Web sites (like researchers setting up their own mini-Webs or the government creating a kid-friendly Web), I get scared. THAT could be the end of the Web as we know it, and I wouldn't feel so fine.

Programmer said:

So I am reading your article and I am wondering what is the real problem you are trying to adress.
1. Is it as your heading suggests the web that is going to disapear - NO.
2. Is it the fact that AOLs e-mail servers were overloaded.
3. Is it the backbone traffic that is increasingly beeing filled by spam.

Lets look at 2 and 3, if AOLs e-mail servers acctually or backbone break down under the stress. 1-2 days downtime more dataprossessing power added problem fixed.

But the problem could get so realy bad that AOL will have to declare defeat and shut off there network. If that in turn brings down some other ISP and the world is without e-mail or net for a few weeks. Then that will hurt million of ordinary users and they will soon bring enough political, economical and technical knowlege on line to declare open season on spammers and virus writers.

Although you think it is bad now it is realy just a nuisance for the ordinary user and a skirmish between spamers and system administrators. The real problem comes when you get 10 times as much spam as you are getting now.

So be prepaired to delete much spam and confirm you have recived mails and wait for better laws. But be assured if the net one day failed and I knew that the problem originated from a spammer/virus writer in my town. Then I would personally go into his house and pour water or acid into his computer. Nothing is going to stop me from getting my morning e-mail and online cartoons.

(Using disbosable e-mail adress active until 4.10.03)

duh said:

Here is the solution. DON'T RUN MICROSOFT. No outlook no problem.

peter said:

"AOL was ultimately forced for the first time to call upon others at the key choke-points around the web for assistance in solving this problem."

And *that's* the end of the web as we know it? That behemoth corporations are forced to play nicely with others - especially annoying behemoths like AOL, which for years did a range of stupid things to alienate the networking community at large?

No, that's the *beginning* of the web as we knew it.

It's wonderful that the problems posed by Sobig et alia are finally getting through, in whatever way, to people at AOL: they're on a network. They will need to act cooperatively - and lo, when they do act cooperatively, people help out! Wooooo! A commons!

What next? Microsoft agreeing not to game the SMB protocols again to help settle the European antitrust litigation, thereby letting servers of all flavors consense with one another?

Why, that would be the end of capitalism as we know it, or would be if you talk to Microsoft.

I'd love to see the end of the kind of maximal growth capitalism we're addicted to, a recognition that there need to be commons and value associated with them, and damages for breaking them. Email interoperability and portability is one such (AOL and Exchange stores? Proprietary headaches) and server interoperability and data portability is at least potentially another.

Quit your whining and learn how to work with others without seeing it as always a threat. If that means legislation to reestablish the notion of commons and their protection, so that greedy pigs don't develop exploitive strategies for it, all the better. I suspect that English common law as protecting physical commons would be a fine place to start to work.

Bobby said:

Unsolicited/unwanted contact regardless of the method (email, telephone, pop-ups) is the main problem. I think refining laws and acceptable use then holding people/companies accountable for their actions are one of the keys. Technology is always bending and changing the playing field so no matter what counter action technically is taken, those that abuse will find holes and "work arounds". I say free mail sending is no longer feasible. When direct marketers use snail mail it must be profitable to be continued. I would be more than happy to pay a per-send charge to the end mailbox for email. Take the profit out of spamming and it will disappear. I wonder if the telephone companies are supporting the DMA in their fight against the no call list.

Dan said:

There's a lot of confused terminology in this article... E-mail is not the Web... neither is AOL synonymous with either E-Mail, the Web, or the Internet... and spam is a distinct problem from viruses / worms like SoBig.

Fred said:

Don't run Microsoft, no Outlook no problem? Did you actually READ the article? This was about AOL, not MS or Outlook. get a life

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